week #25 - 2025

A systematic take on global markets, macro momentum, and tactical positioning across rates and equities.

Good morning folks,
We’re updating our signals and scores using a purely systematic lens to get a clearer read on current market dynamics. Let’s begin with fixed income.

Fixed Income

In the US, trends remain negative across the curve, with the front end and Ultras being the most bearish. The belly holds a more neutral stance. Implied positioning is flat, but momentum remains firmly bearish in the long end. Factoring in futures carry, the front end still screens as a systematic short—offering compelling opportunities for those positioning for an economic slowdown, especially given the extreme acceleration score of -2.

German fixed income shows a constructive setup, particularly in Bunds and Bobl, which display strong trends and improving acceleration. Implied positioning is light, leaving room for further inflows. Schatz is the only tenor with a slightly negative signal, likely tied to front-end ECB uncertainty. Carry remains supportive, with momentum and acceleration aligned for continued strength, particularly in the 5–10Y segment.

BTPs stand out as the strongest long in the entire dashboard. Trend, momentum, and acceleration are all green, supported by the most positive composite signal. Positioning is building, but far from overstretched. With supportive carry and a risk-on tone in euro rates, BTPs remain an attractive high-beta expression of eurozone duration longs or peripheral compression trades.

OATs remain constructive across most metrics, but with the French election approaching, we adopt a more cautious near-term stance.

Gilts are in a transition phase. While trend and momentum are modestly positive, acceleration is now the strongest among developed markets. Despite slightly negative carry, the setup suggests the early stages of a bullish reversal. As UK macro volatility subsides, Gilts may be positioning for relative outperformance.

JGBs remain under pressure. Trends and acceleration are negative, momentum is weak, and positioning offers little support. While carry is marginally positive, it’s not enough to offset the bearish technicals and deteriorating fundamentals. The setup still suggests downside risk.