Fiscal week #24 - 2025

Fiscal flows show signs of stabilization—liquidity injection on the horizon, with unemployment trends improving and tax drag expected to rebound.

Good morning folks,

Let’s provide a quick update on fiscal flows.

For week 37 of the fiscal year, the average daily flow was -3.7bn, representing a withdrawal of resources from the private sector. However, this is better than last year, when the average daily drain was -5.8bn. We expect further outflows in week 38. Compared to the 3-year average, the drain was 1.81bn larger. That said, we had anticipated this pattern, so we are not surprised. We expect another week or two of weak flows before a sustained upward trend in liquidity injections.

On a GDP-adjusted basis, the fiscal impulse stands at 87bps of GDP, which is 16bps higher than the same period last year and 9bps above the 3-year average.